As we began talking about as early as the first half of last week in my evening weathercasts, we would need to begin watching the tropics going deeper into this week for the potential for a system to possibly develop in the Atlantic basin. The latest outlook from the National Hurricane Center now gives this disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm over the coming days. It doesn’t look like much currently on satellite, but it is the disturbance we have circled in the above right image. This is the same tropical wave that rolled off the west coast of Africa the middle of last week. It will continue to move to the west-northwest over the coming few days.
The system has been struggling since last week because it has been encountering a lot of dust and dry air from the Sahara that has rolled out into the Atlantic. However, as it tracks west-northwest through the week, it will begin to outrun some of this dust and dry air and get into conditions a bit less hostile to tropical development. While the system will be tracking over adequately favorable warm water over the western Atlantic though, it will be tracking north of where the highest oceanic heat content (the deepest, warmest waters) is located, over the Caribbean.
There are still question marks as to whether the system can develop, and how strong it may be if it is able to develop. Not all models even develop the system. While the Euro model has been more aggressive, it has at times backed off a bit on development occasionally in model runs here and there. The GFS has been much less aggressive the whole time with the system so far, outside of a few occasional runs. Other models are also as indecisive on whether the system develops. One primary reason may be the very real potential that the wave has to interact with the Caribbean islands and their mountainous terrain on its track west-northwest this week.
If it is able to develop, early guidance at the moment suggests this system may turn north up to East Coast before trying to move into the Gulf of Mexico. It is still WAY early in the game to take that as an absolute. Things can change this far out. We will keep watching very carefully through the week for any forecast changes. Should the system develop into a tropical storm, the next name on the list is Debby!