Cold front brings rain & storms. Watching the gulf for hurricane development.

We’ve got a busy week of weather ahead for the Tennessee Valley! The two main instigators: an approaching cold front and a tropical system expected to become a gulf hurricane by mid-week. There is a lot to unpack, so let’s dive in chronologically.

As of this morning, there is a cold front to our west and a stationary front to our north. While we may see a few pop-up thundershowers this afternoon, rain chances will increase as these boundaries move closer to us tomorrow. For Tuesday, expect afternoon showers and thunderstorms. I cannot completely rule out a strong storm or two with brief gusty winds. Otherwise, scattered thunderstorms will provide us with much needed rain.

The tropical system that will eventually move into the Gulf of Mexico will cause the frontal system to stall out. Think of it like merging onto an interstate. The cold front must wait for the faster, more powerful body to move on. In fact, the cold front will eventually boot the system off to the east as it continues to weaken. This will cause an increase in rain and storm chances as moisture will have nowhere else to go! Where exactly this stall-out occurs is yet to be determined. As of Monday morning, computer models show the TN Valley getting a good 3-5 inches of rain by the end of Friday. We don’t just yet have a forecast for expected rain totals, but we are positioned to get a good helping. In terms of a wind threat, perhaps occasional gusts up to 30mph Thursday through Friday morning look possible for the Tennessee Valley. Unlike Francine’s lingering remnants, what will eventually become Hurricane Helene’s remnants will race out of here. Another difference between the last tropical system and this upcoming system- we will likely be on the west side of the main center of circulation, which is the less problematic region to be in. We will not be dry by any means, and we may get some wind gusts, but we are lot looking at a tornado threat with these remnants as the track stands. We will let you know if anything changes.

This morning NHC forecasters determined the broad low organized itself enough to become Potential Tropical Cyclone 9. It is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by Wednesday. The likely landfall region looks to be the Big Bend region of Florida. The NHC forecasters also do not rule out the possibility of future Helene to become a major hurricane (category 3 or higher).

For us, again, we will have increased rain chances Thursday through Friday morning bringing us a decent amount of rain. Additionally, we could see occasional wind gusts up to 30mph, as the main circulation tracks NNE through Georgia. Did I mention temperatures will cool off nicely? The middle to end of the week may be looking gloomy for us locally, but we will receive much-needed rain and a nice break from the heat.

Kelli Rosson

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