Warm and dry weather pattern breaks this week. Showers expected by Thursday.

Near record-breaking heat will not continue much longer, but it stays for today and tomorrow. Today will be a lot like yesterday, warm, dry, and mostly sunny. Highs will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon. With a mostly clear sky tonight, lows will get down into the mid 50s.

A breezy southerly wind will continue today and tomorrow, ahead of a cold front that will bring us some nice and much-needed changes to our weather pattern. Yes, rain is on the way! Not a ton of it, but more than a few sprinkles around the region. Wednesday stays dry, but clouds will pick up ahead of the frontal system. Winds will be gusting out of the south up to 25 mph Wednesday afternoon, which will keep us warm.

Clouds will increase Wednesday night, but rain showers do not arrive until Thursday morning. Showers will start off light and spotty, but chances get higher as the day progresses, with the highest rain chance overnight Thursday and Friday morning. You’ll need the rain gear both days, as the front looks to move slowly through the TN Valley. I’m not mad about that, though. The slower the front moves, the more rain we get.

We need a widespread couple of inches of rain in order to eradicate drought conditions in the Tennessee Valley. We’ll likely see less than an inch of rain from this system which will not be enough to alter overall drought conditions, but it will be enough to alleviate wildfire/grass fire risks in the area. Rain will move out by Friday evening, with a stray lingering shower possible before Saturday morning. Models are hinting at higher rain totals for the more northwestern counties, especially in Tennessee.

I know I’ve been focused on the rainfall with this front, but we will also notice a change in temperatures. We’ll go from the 80s to just the upper 50s during the afternoon Friday. This weekend will be cooler, with highs in the lower 60s and lows in the lower 40s. A few showers are possible Sunday, but confidence is low.

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