Lots of talk going around on social media regarding long range forecasts. Unfortunately many of these posts are playing off of fear and hype given the recent winter storm and its lengthy effects on several water systems. So, over the last several days, our team has been inundated with messages, texts, and face-to-face questions about what’s going to happen… because it was seen on social media or published in an 19th century grocery store tabloid…
So, what’s the case with the “long range” forecast for our region? Well, personally speaking, I don’t believe we are done with winter yet. Meaning, yes, it will still be cold at times between now and early Spring with the possibility still floating around for a few more snow flakes here and there. But as far as tracking a major winter event like what was experienced a few weeks ago or intense cold, we aren’t seeing anything close to that on extended range models. Could something change tomorrow? Yes, that’s the point of applying experienced people to disseminate data to the public. Unfortunately we live in a time where there’s a great obsession for earning as many likes and shares on social media as possible. There’s a select few who like to throw out raw data just to garner a response off of you. Its like wanting to eat an omelet for breakfast but instead you were fed raw eggs… doesn’t sound too tasty does it?
At the end of the day models aren’t a forecast… it’s a tool that helps us make a forecast to deliver to you. I don’t like to boast but I will say that my team and I make a great effort to ensure the product we provide you is accurate and trustworthy. If we’re not talking about stuff like what’s being shared on social media, then I wouldn’t put too much concern in it.
Oh, and remember the posts from a few week ago about a major snow and cold event on February 9th and 10th? Well… how’s near 70° with a chance for rain and thunderstorms sound?
