What a wonderful Sunday it’s been, especially compared to yesterday – we’ve got an additional 10-15 degrees on Yesterday, with those widespread upper-60s taking hold, and MUCH less cloud cover which helped us secure those mostly sunny blue skies for today. If you’re anything like me, you certainly prefer this over what the last 3-4 weeks had (need I remind us of those frigid temperatures and near 0 degree wind chills we saw not all that long ago?). Fortunately, we hold onto these Spring-like conditions for some time yet, but the best analogy in this case is “You can’t have your cake and eat it too”… in the sense that not necessarily every day this week will be sunny and 75, exactly. Let’s break it down.
Now, to start our week, we definitely don’t have any Monday blues to contend with – not only do we stay clear (if slightly breezy), we secure lower-70s for highs and really solidify that warming trend. Those slightly breezy conditions out of the S to SW are what we can thank in large part for this warming trend, by the way, in the sense that it’s this wind that is transporting warmer, and more moist air into the Tennessee Valley from the Gulf. We keep those winds out of the south for quite some time uninterrupted, pretty much maintaining their southerly direction through to about Friday, so the trend is your friend with respect to those relatively warmer temperatures sticking around (with some minor variation mixed in, as is noticeable sporadically). That said, this warm air flowing into the area is also one key facet in the double-sided nature of this trend, because while it does warm us up, it also provides some atmospheric moisture in the area.
Our first more notable rain chances are through the midweek time frame. Initially we were eyeing earlier for shower chances, but indications suggest that is less likely, and probably around midnight to 6am Wednesday is when we first see those shower chances in the Tennessee Valley in a more meaningful way. In fact, through Wednesday, a system to our North will scrape us (that is, we will be on the Southern edge of it), perhaps yielding a rumble of thunder or two with those isolated showers. What it isn’t looking like is some kind of total washout, nothing like that – just a day to keep the forecast in the back of mind. Thursday seems to be the more robust day as far as rain chances are concerned, including some thunderstorms as a possibility (namely in the 2nd half of the day, likely towards the evening as of current indications), as that system drapes over us and moves eastward with time.
The 7 day wraps the trend up in a nice little bow and shows it quite clearly – it also shows that we DO of course have a handful of solid little days if you’d like to hit up the park and enjoy those nice conditions, especially over the next couple days. Just keep that umbrella on hand starting in the Midweek, because indications as of right now suggest an active pattern may stick around out towards NEXT weekend too, which may usher in some big changes long-term… but that’s a ways out for specifics. Enjoy this little spurt of warmth while you can, because February likes to throw us curveballs!