Drought conditions worsen. Will the incoming cold front help us out?

The new weekly U.S Drought Monitor update is in, and the Tennessee Valley is only getting drier. Part of the area is now in an extreme drought, which is depicted in red. Tennessee’s seasonal burn ban began back on October 15th. Alabama is also under a statewide burn ban. Tishomingo County, MS is not currently under a burn ban, but you should not be burning anything or starting any fires anywhere in the Tennessee Valley. We’re 2-3 inches short of rainfall over the last month, and many locations haven’t even measured half an inch of rainfall within the last 30 days. With a few more dry days, plus windy conditions, please do not burn anything outdoors.

This afternoon will be another warm and breezy one across the area. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s, with winds out of the south gusting around 20 mph. No rain in today’s forecast. Tonight will be partly to mostly cloudy, with lows reaching down into the lower 60s.

Friday and Saturday both hold just a stray rain chance, but I wouldn’t rely on it to bring any type of relief to the dry conditions. A cold front that has been moving through the central U.S. is slowly but surely getting closer to the Tennessee Valley. Decent rain chances hold off until Sunday night, though.

As the cold front gets closer, cloud cover will get thicker Sunday afternoon. I think we stay dry until late Sunday night, and then periodic rain showers will persist throughout the morning and afternoon on Monday. This front will not only bring us a chance for much needed rain, but it also comes with quite a dramatic temp drop. Unfortunately, rainfall totals with this system are under an inch in model forecasts and I’m not too confident we clock in anything close to an inch. As they say, any drop of rain helps, but we’re gonna need more than a couple drops, and more than this cold front to reverse the ongoing drought conditions.

Monday’s high temperature will be reached before sunrise, with temps falling into the 50s throughout the day. Temps will only continue to fall into the upper 30s as the front moves out Monday night. The good news? Halloween Tuesday looks dry. The bad news? Halloween Tuesday looks cold. With a clearing sky and a cold breeze out of the north, temperatures will be lucky to make it into the lower 50s Tuesday afternoon. Layers will be needed either under or over any Halloween costumes. We stay cold Wednesday as well, with highs remaining in the lower 50s and lows getting below freezing! We are looking at our first frost/freeze of the season next week, so long as environmental conditions allow.

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