Picturesque weekend ahead – but rain returns soon (at long last!)

You don’t get much more fall-like than days like this, if you ask me – we’ve been dry, we got rid of those morning clouds, and we were cool and clear throughout the day with upper-50s sticking around for the majority of us. Of note was that sharp northerly wind that stuck around for our Saturday – that’s our primary culprit as to what’s kept us cool and dry for now, and this same airmass will likely extend its influence well into tomorrow as well. That being said, if you’ve been keeping an eye on the forecast over the last several days, you’ll know that that airmass isn’t long for this world, and is going to quickly be replaced by our next rainmaker: a system with some actual, beneficial rainfall chances for once!

First thing’s first, and that’s taking a look at what we can expect as we wrap up our weekend – as mentioned, that airmass that kept us dry and cool today is still the dominating influence across the area, and as such will permit lower-60s and clear skies for a vast majority of the day Sunday. By the PM, we stay dry, but the first hints of the rainmaking system begin to creep into the Tennessee Valley by way of some upper level cloud cover inching in from the west overnight and into Monday morning. Monday itself is the day we begin to see the big changes in the local dynamics, and it’s no wonder why – well to our south and west, there is even the possibility of some severe weather in Louisiana and Mississippi!

By Monday afternoon, we’re back in the mid-60s across the Tennessee Valley with a sharp southerly wind pulling moisture from the gulf into the system of interest just off to our north and west. As we head through the PM hours, it makes its way east and that’s when we begin to increase those rain chances. By Monday night, it’s not only raining for pretty much all of us, but it’s also notably gusty – think wind gusts in the 35-40mph range. Expecting to hold onto this rain at least into the AM hours of Tuesday, with the particularly widespread rainfall starting to exit the region as Tuesday progresses.

Behind the rainfall (a reasonably beneficial 1-2 inches when all is said and done), the focus turns more towards the front associated with this system which will cool us off in a pretty big way as we approach Thanksgiving. The 60s of today and tomorrow will be replaced with widespread upper-40s/low-50s for daytime highs beyond Wednesday, and it’s looking more and more likely that freezing conditions will return overnight midweek and beyond with this as well. On the bright side (no pun intended), we are likely to stay overall dry through this time frame, with only very scant moisture to work with behind this robust early week system.

Of very minor note is the possibility of some wrap-around, drizzly type sprinkles Wednesday as the northerly’s associated with this system wrap back around into the Tennessee Valley. I’ve seen enough of these systems to know this is a possibility, but I am not thinking this will be particularly impactful or of note – tune in tomorrow, as I’ll have more on how this system evolves as we get more data in, but rain chances are staying low and this frankly pales in comparison to the more comprehensive, widespread rain chances we see in the days prior to this.

Good news is that the front keeps us fall-like (if not fairly below average) as we head into a cooler pattern by weeks end. For Thanksgiving and beyond, we’re holding onto these 50s (and perhaps cooler, depending on how the post-system airmass evolves – I’ll keep you updated on that) and generally dry conditions at least into the end of the week.

Go enjoy tomorrow, if you have after church plans, want to go for a hike, or anything in-between – 60s and dryness won’t last for much longer!

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