It’s been a pretty nice fall weekend, but the main story on everyone’s mind is that long awaited, beneficial rainfall we’ve been discussing for days – so lets get right into it and discuss our Monday. First things first: the bulk of the day. By and large, we stay broadly dry with temperatures climbing into the upper 60s across the Valley due in large part to that sharp, southerly wind. Even though we’ll likely stay dry until the evening, you’ll be able to tell there is widespread moisture around due to the cloud cover building through the day and the slightly more humid air. By late afternoon, showers are creeping in… slowly, then all at once.
And that’s no exaggeration, either – by the time we’re heading into the last 6 hours of the day, that rain sweeps in *fast*, as the low level jet increases and the speed of the system ticks up (at least according to most models – a slower solution would yield more). Mixed in with the “shield” of rain could be a few stronger storms, with gusty winds and some lightning with those. Very far off to our southwest are some severe storm chances, but that is firmly outside of our area, I suspect. If there is any sort of more impactful weather in the Tennessee Valley, it’s more likely to be associated with the non-thunderstorm winds associated with this system.
It’s worth mentioning that the systems speed is the main as to why we’re going to see these more robust surfaces winds through tomorrow night and into early Tuesday morning – of which some gusts may be in excess of 40-45mph at times. That said, it’s not impossible we see a sporadic power outage or two with some weaker tree limbs falling on infrastructure or something of the like, so we’ll have to watch the late night timeframe for that as the main brunt of the front. Also worth quickly noting, if the system ends up being slower, the winds that translate down may be a little less, and the rainfall totals as a whole may be a little more; which, if there’s anything beneficial from this system, it’s exactly that.
Models to date have honed in to a solution that indicates somewhere between 1-2 inches of rainfall for essentially all of us across the area – definitely enough to help relieve that drought to some extent, and, permitting for a bit of wiggle room, even may be somewhat indicative of the possibility of some very isolated, low-level flooding in spots when considering the state of the topsoil across the Tennessee Valley. As mentioned above, there is also the other solution of a “slower” system, which would increase those rain totals a bit more and consequently increase the flooding chances, but I personally don’t suspect that outcome will happen – though the possibility is always there and worth mentioning.
The systems “last wind” so to speak will push through early Tuesday morning between 12-6AM, with only a few very isolated wrap around sprinkles lingering over the subsequent 24 hours or so in the Tennessee Valley; in this airmass, most of us will stay dry, cool, and cloudy. The main story behind it is the cooldown – this being a cold front, we’re likely to hold 50s (somewhat below average for this time of year) as we wrap this week up, and that is about the extent of what there is to discuss beyond this system – which I’ll definitely take, as a calm holiday week is a good holiday! Let’s just get past this rambunctious start to our work week, and enjoy our Thanksgiving!