Tuesday has started off calm, quiet and MUGGY across the Tennessee Valley! It’s the definition of ‘the air you can wear.’ Dewpoints in the 70s are making it feel miserable outside! Highs this afternoon will top out in the low to mid 80s, with scattered pop-up showers and storms expected. A few storms that develop until about 8pm have the potential to be strong to low end severe. Below are the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) outlooks for both today and Wednesday, which has a more elevated severe threat.
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
Now until 8pm we expect a mixture of showers and storms, scattered in nature, to move through the viewing area from west to east. Any storms that do develop, which is not a guarantee, have the potential to be strong to low-end severe. Today is a lower-end threat with wind gusts up to 50-60mph, which would just barely meet severe thunderstorm criteria, small hail, and what I’ll call a non-zero tornado threat. By that I mean the tornado threat isn’t zero, but it’s pretty close. Unfortunately it’s just something we can never really rule out. This round of storm activity should quiet down around sunset, but we’re not done yet! Models have another round of storms, linear in fashion, in the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday morning. Aside from some gusty winds and lightning/thunder that may wake you up, there is no concern over this round of storms. We’ll be watching them as they move through. After this round, we catch a slight break before our next round later in the day.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
First off I want to mention the low chance of afternoon pop-up storms Wednesday. This is not likely, but also not out of the question. We will have to keep a close eye on any storms that pop up during the afternoon, but that time frame is by no means our main concern.
After about 9pm we will be watching to our west for thunderstorm development and propagation. We expect storms in our western counties as early as 10pm, continuing on and clearing our eastern counties by 6am. The storms will not last that long for western counties, and will not start that early for eastern counties. This round has most of our attention, as we are in a level 2/5 & 3/5 risk for severe weather, split at the state line for simplicity’s sake. A few tornadoes are possible, as well as damaging winds up to 70mph, quarter to half-dollar size hail, and the potential for flash flooding with as much as 3 inches of rain possible in some isolated locations. This is not a high-end type tornado outbreak event by any means, but I expect to see a few tornado warnings issued within these storms that move through.
With Wednesday’s overnight storm threat, it’s crucial to have a way to get weather warnings that will wake you up. A NOAA Weather Radio is a fantastic option, and you still have plenty of time to purchase one before Wednesday night. If you already have one, make sure your batteries are fresh and it’s working properly. Tennessee Valley Weather has a FREE smartphone app that will send warning alerts to your phone. You can also watch our live coverage on the app, courtesy of your local QuikMart.
I know we live in the south and most of us are no strangers to severe weather and tornado threats, but as a refresher and for those of you reading this who may be new to the area, here are some tornado safety guidelines. It’s important to have a plan beforehand, so you can execute that plan with ease should you need to. If you or someone you know live in a mobile home, I would encourage you to spend the night Wednesday night elsewhere if possible.
