Sunny, beautiful weather continues across the Tennessee Valley for this Monday. We do expect a few clouds in the sky, but much more blue than cloud cover. Daytime highs will be seasonably warm again with temps topping out in the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows tonight under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies get down to the mid 60s. We will note that the GFS model spits out a few showers this afternoon in the heat of the day. However, with no organized disturbances about to act as a triggering mechanism and the low to mid levels of the atmosphere being fairly dry, we’re going to hold off on adding showers to the forecast.
Our weather for the next few days will be controlled by a ridge of high pressure in the upper-levels of the atmosphere anchored over southern Texas and extending northeastward through the Southeast. This will mean warm weather for our area and all the active weather with the storm track and disturbances staying well north and west of us from the Plains to the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest. As we head into the late week and weekend, that ridge aloft flattens and breaks down. That allows the storm track to shift back southward toward us and for disturbances to pass by with increasing chances for shower and thunderstorms.
That upper-level ridge of high pressure will keep us in mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies through Tuesday and Wednesday. Daytime highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, and we may see a few communities (especially in north Alabama and northeast Mississippi) sneak up into the 90-91 degree range. The active weather northwest of us through Wednesday gradually shifts southeastward toward us as the upper ridge breaks down. This will allow for increasing clouds Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night and maybe a few showers overnight Wednesday night. Showers and thunderstorms will be more numerous just to our northwest on Thursday, but we will still have increasing chances of at least scattered activity. Rain and storms seem more likely here locally on Friday as a disturbance passing by gives a triggering mechanism for more widespread rain and storm activity. We don’t see any clear signs of a severe storm threat, but we’re heading into that time of year now where any storm in the afternoon can go briefly severe with gusty winds and small hail. Daytime highs on Friday will be closer to the lower 80s with more widespread clouds and rain around. Scattered storm chances remain through the weekend with daytime highs sticking in the mid to upper 80s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.
