Our weather pattern will be getting more active as we head through the next several days. For our local area here in the Tennessee Valley, there are a couple/few periods where we are monitoring for the potential for strong to severe storms:
1. Friday evening/overnight – April 24th: This appears to be a very low-end and iffy/uncertain threat. The NWS Storm Prediction Center currently has us in a Level 1 of 5 risk of severe storms. Tornadoes are not likely. The main threats (low-end) are a couple of storms with gusty straight-line winds and small hail. The main concerns would be lightning and heavy rainfall.
2. Monday afternoon/night – April 27th: This is the more organized threat currently on the board, but there are still some uncertainties. The NWS Storm Prediction Center currently has most of our area in a Level 2 of 5 risk of severe storms, but the text of the outlook mentions that a “higher-end” type threat may possibly evolve. It is possible that this risk level could get upgraded as we get closer. All threat types are on the board, including some degree of a tornado risk. It’s just still a bit too far out to know the smaller-scale details that will help determine the seriousness level of the severe/tornado risk, who exactly will have a higher vs lower risk, exact timing, etc.,. We are still in “pattern recognition and watching trends” mode with the system.
3. Yes, you may even already be hearing some mention of yet another system on the board toward NEXT Thursday, April 30th. If you are seeing that talk, it IS legitimate based on the data we have currently available. And yes, it does CURRENTLY even look like it may be the strongest of the bunch. HOWEVER, that’s WAY far out in time, and a LOT can change between now and then. There is no reason to focus on it much right now. This is just us acknowledging it and letting you know that we see it, and we will watch it through the coming days.
Let’s take these one at a time and go from there. We will start having a good handle on some of the smaller scale details for the Monday risk as we head into tomorrow afternoon and especially Friday and the weekend. And we will have a much better handle on that thing showing up for later next week as we start to get toward Monday and Tuesday of the coming week.
