
We haven’t talked about it in a little bit because of being busy with winter storms, storm threats, and generally active weather for the last several days, but there are still drought conditions in place across the area. The good news, though, is that there has been some improvement. “Exceptional” level drought conditions are no longer outlined across any parts of the area. “Extreme” level drought conditions have also been pulled northward out of Limestone County AL and almost out of Giles County TN. In our viewing area, only a small part of Giles County TN, southeastern Maury County TN, and central Marshall County TN remain in the “Extreme” category of drought conditions. Elsewhere, “Severe” drought conditions stretch roughly from Spring Hill, TN down to the Bankhead National Forecast in Lawrence County, AL. “Moderate” drought conditions are generally along and east of U.S. Highway 43 in southern middle TN down to Lauderdale County, AL and then through much of Colbert and Franklin Counties of AL and southern Tishomingo County, MS. Keep in mind that drought conditions are not outlined based on whether your front yard is muddy or not from recent rain. Drought conditions are based on long-term rainfall deficits, deep-layer ground moisture, water shed conditions, deep-layer water table depths, etc.



We have had active weather and some bouts of heavy rainfall at times over the last few weeks. Most all of the viewing area has had between 3.5″ and 5″ of rain over the last 30 days. That is slightly behind what is normal, however, at only roughly 70-90% of what is normal. That isn’t a big deficit, but when parts of southern middle Tennessee and the I-65 corridor of north Alabama have 365-day rainfall deficits of 1 to 2 feet, only being slightly behind in rainfall for a month means not a lot of drought improvement.



The forecast going forward isn’t bad if you want at least a little continued improvement to the drought conditions. We look to see an areawide 0.5″ with isolated heavier totals over the next seven days, with the vast majority of that (if not all of it) happening tonight into the first half of Saturday. From there, both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day precipitations outlooks from the NWS Climate Prediction Center show above average precipitation chances in our area going through the end of the month. From there, with La Nina conditions present and a negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, we will likely have an active storm track heading through spring, leading for more opportunities for drought improvement.