Rain and storms from last night have shifted east of our area, and arctic air is spilling into the Tennessee Valley this early Monday morning. We have already reached our official high temperatures for today, with temps holding steady in the lower 30s through today or even dropping slightly into the upper 20s during the afternoon. Gusty northwest winds will continue through much of the day before calming a little overnight. Expect sustained winds in the 10-20 mph range for much of today with gusts occasionally as high as 30 mph possible. This will have wind chill values in the upper 10s to lower 20s for a majority of the day. Be sure to bundle up in layers if you have to be outside! Clouds hang tough today and tonight, and there may be just enough remnant low-level moisture in those clouds to squeeze out a few spotty flurries or light snow showers during the morning to early afternoon hours of today. No impacts or problems are expected. Mostly cloudy skies will continue tonight with overnight lows dropping into the mid 20s or so across most of the area.
Quiet but cold conditions will be in store for the middle part of the week with arctic air settling into the area. Daytime highs will be in the mid to upper 30s through the week with overnight lows ranging from the mid/upper 10s to the lower 20s. Because we’re only getting into the 30s during the daytime hours, there will only be a few hours each day that we are above freezing. While we are not going to be outrageously or record-breaking cold, because of the short duration of above-freezing temps each day, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to drip your faucets if your pipes aren’t well insulated, as a just in case, especially during the overnight periods. We return to mostly clear skies on Tuesday, and we continue that through at least part of Thursday before clouds start rolling back in by the afternoon and evening ahead of the next weather system to affect our area.
That next weather system, affecting our area Friday into Friday night, is the big ticket item in the forecast for the Tennessee Valley this week. We’ve been watching model trends and signs of consistency over the weekend, and all data is locking onto pretty heavy agreement in the basic general idea of an impactful wintry weather system (a bit too far out to use the phrase “winter storm” just yet, but that’s what it would likely be) across our area, but it’s still too soon for exact specific details. We’ll break down what we are highly confident in, and then what we still don’t have a good handle on just yet:
What we are confident in so far:
- Confidence is high that an organized low pressure will track near the Gulf Coast, bringing moisture northward into cold air that will already be in place across our region.
- Highs only in the mid 30s this week and overnight lows in the mid/upper 10s to lower 20s will mean the infrastructure (roads, bridges, etc.,) will be chilled ahead of this storm system. It will be easier for snow, sleet, freezing rain, etc., to accumulate because of this.
- Accumulating wintry precipitation, likely starting as either all snow or a mix of snow and sleet, will begin across our area Friday morning, maybe as early as near or a couple of hours before sunrise. There will likely be travel issues during the morning hours on Friday because of this.
What we still don’t have a good handle on yet:
- There is the potential for warmer air about 3,000 to 5,000 feet above the ground to nose into the system from south to north part of the way through the event on Friday, especially toward the midday and afternoon hours. For the areas where this happens (if it does), that would cause the snow to mix with other precipitation types or even switch over to rain. The exact specific track of the low pressure will determine where this warm nose aloft sets up and which parts of our area may turn from snow to a wintry mix or to rain versus which areas stay all snow or snow/sleet.
- Since we don’t have a good handle on that first point just yet, it is too far out to talk about exact specific accumulations of the wintry precipitation types, although confidence is high in the general idea that there will be impactful accumulations of snow and/or of wintry precipitation types across most or all of the viewing area.
- IF some areas are able to change over to all rain part of the way through the event Friday afternoon and evening, this may allow a window of time for those areas where travel conditions improve, before temperatures drop back into the 20s later into the overnight. Once we’re able to figure out which areas may experience that warm nose aloft and for how long, we will have a better handle on this point as well.
Keep in mind that we are still four days away from this wintry weather situation. While confidence is high in the general idea, the exact specific details are yet unknown and still need to be sorted out. We will continue to do just that as we work through the week and get closer to the event. Be sure to stay in touch with us through the week for updated forecast information!
