As far as ways to start the Weekend go, today was not a bad example at all – we managed a handful of lower 60s today (though many of us stuck around the upper 50s), and we were treated to partly cloudy skies. In some ways today was also a “chapstick weather” kind of day, with those particularly low dewpoints and relatively high winds gusting to 25mph at times. As a matter of fact, these conditions are even more pronounced to our south into GA and AL, and those areas even have red flag warnings as a result, including our NE MS folks. Even though we don’t have that warning up here, I’d still advise against burning anything for the rest of your day. Nevertheless the wind settles down tonight and freezing temps return tonight – pets, plants, pipes: keep them warm, bring them inside, do what you need to do.
This cooldown continues into tomorrow as that front has mostly swept through, also leading to cooler daytime highs. We’re expecting a fairly decent little cooldown compared to the last few days, with our highs expected to maximize somewhere in the upper 40s/near 50 range for our Sunday. On the bright side (no pun intended), we stay clear as can be through the day, and that wind also settles down quite a bit as the front moves further and further away from us with time. Sunday is likely our lowest highs, as afterwards… it’s go time for more 60s and above, and rain chances return!
To start our week, we start to see some shower chances filter into the area. For our Monday, we aren’t necessarily looking at all day washout type conditions, but still a few showers may sprinkle down on some of us, especially in NE MS and NW AL. This is a sign, of course, of that moisture moving into the area, which doubly so acts to warm us up a bit compared to Sunday. When all is said and done, Monday will probably have a 5 or so degree edge on Sunday, with highs scraping right up against 60 on average across the area. Those showers aren’t long for this world though, and move out through the overnight.
Now for the main system: the one swinging through Tuesday evening. We’ve been keeping a close eye on this, and we’re starting to get a better sense of threat and timing. Above are just two models we use to sus out trends, and they depict a fairly similar scene unfolding, with only a bit of variation overall – the timeframe to watch according to much of the data we’re getting now is that post-sunset timeframe on Tuesday, we’ll call it 5pm-10pm as the window of maximum potential overall. Just before this, we’ll probably push up against 70 or so for our highs Tuesday!
Our primary threat, as with most linear systems, is the threat of damaging winds 60+mph across large portions of the line. The higher tornado threat appears to be to our Southwest where some better instability and dynamics mix, but that of course does not mean the threat is zero up here – a few spin-up tornadoes could be possible if some spots of rotation can get established, so we’ll keep a close eye on that as we always do when these systems roll through.
Also of note are those NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS on Tuesday ahead of the line. Due to the overall breadth and strength of the system as a whole, even the non-storm winds will be fairly high, talking gusts in the 35-45mph range, but some models suggest those wind ranges may be even higher still – so heading into the core severe weather threat, we may already have had some hours of fairly intense gusts, which is worth considering when thinking about the potential impacts. Needless to say, STRAP DOWN any outdoor accoutrements over the next day or two. Between these gusts and the line of storms, you won’t regret spending a few minutes doing so. We will break down this chance in more detail tomorrow live at 12pm, so be sure to tune in then for more.
Big picture, the roller coaster ride of temperatures continues with the front behind that line of storms. That taste of Spring is quashed pretty quickly, though we don’t necessarily TOTALLY crash with temperatures in the late-week – the 7 day trend shows the up and down nature pretty well. In fact, the end of the week looks pretty nice, though notably cooler before temperatures moderate. By the time I’m talking to you again next weekend, I may be talking about rain ongoing across the area as a signal exists for another rain system out that way. We’re definitely getting into Meteorological Spring with these storm and rain chances showing up!
