Now that we’re headed into March, it probably won’t come as a surprise to any of you to hear that we’re keeping this slightly more active pattern around – we’ve of course been no stranger to severe weather events of one variety or another over these last few months, and as we’ve been discussing in the last few days Tuesday looks to be our next shot. Let’s break down some new data, the trends, and what we can expect from the pattern here in the Tennessee Valley after this system sweeps on through.
Similar to yesterday’s data, we continue to have a pretty good idea of the timeline of these storms. While there is some fairly minor variation as expected, the consensus continues to grow that the highest chances for severe storms appear to be from sunset, into the mid-overnight hours – let’s call it 6-9pm, for the maximum threat window. Before diving into those threats, it’s worth mentioning that to start the day, our “background state” to begin with will already host widespread gusty winds in the vicinity of 35-45mph OUTSIDE of the thunderstorm activity expected later in the day, what we call gradient winds, so if you have any outdoor furniture of patio accoutrements you planned to strap down or take inside because of the storms, I would go ahead and do it the day before. Nevertheless it’s these background conditions that demonstrate the fairly robust nature of the system, which leads us to discuss what the big line of storms is capable of – unsurprisingly, given it’s a large line of storms, our main threat continues to be damaging winds, which could exceed 60mph at times in spots, exacerbating a day alright chock full of wind.
Also worth mentioning is that chance for a spin-up type variety tornado in the line – while the chances are elevated off to our southwest more so than they are here, that of course doesn’t mean our chances are zero. We’ve seen over these last few events just how sneaky tornadic activity can be in systems like this, where you have a big broad line with dozens or hundreds of miles of line to monitor, so it’s certainly would keeping in mind in those Tuesday overnight hours. Of course, like those events, we’ll be staffed in the weather center monitoring the storm system to let you know if anything happens. By midnight, we’ll very likely be seeing the line push off to our east, paving the way for a drier day afterwards (though we don’t immediately let go of the wind – Wednesday will still be a breezy day!).
Behind this system, that front knocks a few degrees off of our highs for Weds-Thurs, as compared to the next couple of days which promise some spring-like temperatures due to that surging moisture into the area from the south. That said, if you aren’t a fan of the yo-yo of temperatures, just know it won’t be COLD cold, but rather more akin to lower 50s in the late-week. We also see those 60s return by Friday, and next Weekend keeps that trend in place – and also appears to have some rain chances locally, though specifics are scarce right now. Some indications are that it may be an overnight thing, or into Sunday morning, so we’ll monitor those trends to see what kind of additional showers and rainfall we pick up from that, though that system doesn’t look particularly impactful for us up here as the bulk of it seems to stay off to our south. Long term? Perhaps more spring like temps… so stay tuned for that; and of course stay with us Tuesday evening for the latest on those storm chances.
