Nothing like an ‘average’ day to kick off the week here in the Tennessee Valley. Enjoy plenty of sunshine! While this morning was cold, this afternoon will be cool but comfortable, with temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s. We will be under a clear sky tonight, as temperatures cool of into the upper 20s.
Tuesday is looking warmer with highs in the upper 50s thanks to southerly winds 10-15mph. Clouds will increase overnight ahead of the next weathermaker for the Tennessee Valley. Scattered rain showers will move in by Wednesday morning/afternoon as temperatures are still well above freezing. Once the bulk of the moisture moves out, northerly winds will send in some very cold air, getting us below freezing. The question that needs to be answered: will there be any moisture left when temps fall below 32°? Let’s discuss below.
Virtually all models we look at in order to make a forecast has sub-freezing temperatures moving in Wednesday night. One trend I have noticed this morning sifting through new and old data- moisture content is decreasing after temperatures reach the freezing mark. That being said, noted below in four different model outputs for Wednesday night- all have at least a chance of a few flurries in the Tennessee Valley. By the way, don’t pay much attention to the times depicted on each model. With this event, the IF is more important than the WHEN.
THE MAIN TAKEAWAYS: air is trending drier, not everyone will see snowflakes, no impacts or accumulation is expected here locally. Can systems like these throw in a last minute surprise? Sure! We’ll watch for those signs, but for now, we’re thinking we will see just a few flurries at best.
If you’re reading this, that means you are on the internet. That also means you have probably seen the buzz around a wintry system for the Tennessee Valley this weekend. There is far too much model inconsistency (both temperature and moisture related) to tell you what could happen, other than we are watching the trends and the potential. Stick with Tennessee Valley Weather for updates. We’re not worried about what will get the most clicks and attention, we are concerned with accuracy.
