This week is off to a very pleasant start, with temperatures in the 60s and 70s paired with plenty of sunshine. The end of this week will be completely different, with the threat of severe thunderstorms on the table. I’ll touch on the severe threat below. Let’s first briefly get through the next few days! We are nice and dry with a sunny sky today and tomorrow. Cloud cover begins to increase by Wednesday with a mid-week thundershower chance Wednesday night. If you hear thunder Wednesday night, DON’T WORRY! This is not the storm system we are monitoring for severe weather. No severe weather is expected Wednesday night. I can’t guarantee you won’t hear thunder, but again, no severe threat until at least Friday.
We will see a few thundershowers linger throughout the day Thursday, but again, there is no severe threat here. That system will eventually clear the Tennessee Valley, and we will be monitoring the severe weather threat for Friday night and Saturday. Temperatures will remain in the 70s all week.
FRIDAY NIGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
Thunderstorms will develop Friday afternoon to our west and push into the Tennessee Valley overnight and into the early morning hours of Saturday. It is too early to get specific with the details. However, based on the storm ingredients consistently present on weather model data, all severe hazard types are possible with this first round, including a risk of tornadoes. Something we will be watching is the availability of moisture to be sufficient this far east for the overnight threat, but it is certainly looking possible. Yes, there is still time for parameters to change, in favor of a lower threat or higher threat. Do not be caught off guard with this overnight round because it’s “overnight” or because it’s not Saturday’s threat. We take ANY severe threat seriously to best inform and protect you, even if the events are less than a day apart.
SATURDAY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
While we will potentially have morning thunderstorms exiting the region Saturday morning, the severe threat for later in the day remains on the table. We will be watching for how quickly or slowly the morning round exits the region, how moisture is able to hold up and recover, if needed, and how many thunderstorm boundaries could potentially affect smaller-scale storm ingredients later in the day. While those are a lot of parameters to monitor, data shows storm ingredients conducive for a severe weather threat later in the day. Just like the Friday threat, there is still time for model data to trend more or less favorable for a severe threat, and it is still too early for more specific details. That being said, again, all hazards are possible Saturday as well, including a tornado threat.
BE PREPARED, NOT SCARED!
We don’t say any of this to scare you, or for clicks. We simply want you to be presented with the most accurate, thorough, and up-to-date information. If we are updating the forecast multiple times a day, that’s because we never stop fine-tuning details as new weather model data comes in. It’s not because we are trying to hype things up, or go back on our word. We would be doing a disservice if we didn’t update the forecast multiple times a day.
HOW CAN YOU PREPARE?
-Do you know your tornado safety plan?
-Do you know where to seek shelter in the event of a tornado warning in your home or workplace?
-Do you know your nearest community storm shelter and how long it takes to drive there?
-Do you know what county you live in, and do you know the names of towns and communities to your west, south, and southwest?
-Do you know anybody who lives in a mobile home, or do you yourself live in a mobile home?
-Do you have a storm safety kit, and do you know what to put in it?
-Do you know the difference between a watch and a warning?
-Do you have multiple ways to get weather warnings, even if your power is out or you are asleep?
-Do you have a way to watch live weather coverage?
If you can answer these questions, you are prepared. Here is a link to our blog post with resources and information about severe weather safety.
