Monday is off to a pretty great start here in the Tennessee Valley. Temps will warm in to the low to mid 60s this afternoon with a southerly breeze. The air is still very dry today, which means we will be rain free and you should continue to avoid burning anything outdoors. Lows tonight will get down into the mid to upper 40s as we stay dry, with a slight increase in clouds following a mostly sunny day today.
The Storm Prediction Center has our area split between a level 1 & level 2 risk for severe storms Tuesday afternoon and evening. The further southwest you are, the better the environment will be for potential severe storms. We will talk about overall threats toward the bottom of this post. However, even aside from any storms, we will have very gusty winds, up to 40-45mph! A Wind Advisory will be in effect beginning around noon Tuesday and it will last through Wednesday afternoon. Add in some stronger storms, we could see brief stronger gusts up to 60mph as the line moves through. Winds will still be quite strong but starting to wind down through the day Wednesday.
TIMING: Again, we will be quite windy even before t’storms arrive Tuesday. We could see rain and storms as early as 3pm for our far western counties, with the main line looking to push through. The main line should be through our viewing area by 10pm.
Wind will be the main threat with this system. Here’s a look at future wind gusts. You’ll notice even outside of the storm time frame that gusts are still quite strong. Gust will peak as the main line moves through, and will continue at a slightly lesser magnitude through Wednesday afternoon. We are quite confident in a windy two days.
THREATS: Like I mentioned above, damaging wind gusts will be the main concern with this storm system. Aside from gradient wind gusts up to 40-45mph, thunderstorm related wind gusts could surpass 60mph, which meets severe thunderstorm criteria. I do not envision a line of storms covered in warnings. I envision a line of storms with a a few warnings here and there. There will also be a decent amount of wind shear, but the tornado risk remains low. We can NEVER rule our a quick spin-up tornado with a system like this, but the truth is, the instability, or storm fuel, is just not there. We are also lacking in the moisture department (dew points barely reach 60° for our southern counties), these better ingredients remain well to our southwest. A stout severe thunderstorm event requires sufficient amounts of wind shear, lift, instability and moisture. We can only check two ingredients off the list. Hence, why we are faced with a lower-end type event.
All that being said, Tuesday is still a day we need to be weather aware. Damaging wind gusts can do as much damage as a lower-end tornado. As we enter into Tuesday’s severe weather potential, and just spring time in general, be sure you know your storm safety plan and have a way to get watches and warnings, even if your power goes out. As always, I cannot recommend our FREE app more. A weather radio will also do an excellent job at warning you of what’s to come.
