Today is going to be a beautiful day across the Tennessee Valley. There are some clouds in southern middle Tennessee that will make way for a mostly sunny sky for most of the day. Temperatures will be comfortable this afternoon in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Winds will shift from north to south this afternoon. Evening temps will be in the upper 50sm but temperatures will actually warm up after midnight into the mid 60s thanks to the southerly wind. It will also be quite breezy with gusts up to 25 mph Wednesday! We will be shifting to a much warmer weather pattern for the rest of the week.
MID-LATE WEEK STORM SYSYEM: A low pressure system is going to set itself up to our northwest by Wednesday , creating a pretty close call for us here in the Tennessee Valley in terms of thunderstorm chances and a severe weather threat. I’ll say right off the bat, I think this system stays northwest of the vast majority of the viewing area until Saturday. The Storm Prediction Center has our area highlighted Wednesday through Friday, but again, our thinking is the storms stay out of the area. That being said, let’s talk about it, because again, it’s going to be a sharp cut-off.
You’ll notice on our in-house FutureCast model that storms mostly stay away from our area. As a precaution, if you are NW of the Natchez Trace Parkway, I would be alert for the POSSIBILITY of severe thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday. FutureCast does nudge a few thunderstorms into parts of Maury, Lewis and we’ll even say far northern Wayne and Hardin Counties. Again, I think that is as southeast as this system is going to get, with the likelihood of staying out of our coverage area all-together. I believe that to be the case due to ridging (high pressure) overcoming the low pressure system here in the Southeast.
The same goes for Thursday and Friday. I will say, Thursday has a *slightly* better chance of our NW counties seeing some t’storms, but as far as the severity of those storms, it would be a much less serious threat. The chance still remains for this system to miss our area entirely. I think Friday will be largely dry in our viewing area.
PLEASE NOTE: The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted our area Wednesday – Friday. We have posted those to our social media pages, but are refraining from sharing them multiple times without thorough explanation because we believe they are a bit too SW. They are trying to play it safe, but we are here to give you OUR thoughts!
In the same way, there is what we will call a “just in case” Flood Watch fora few of our counties. I say “just in case” for our counties specifically. Again, I think the main flooding threat, due to multiple rounds of thunderstorms, will be northwest of our viewing area. Again, we’re talking about a sharp cut-off. These products are simply giving some wiggle room. After all, we are just trying to predict the future!
With all that being taken into consideration, we are including a chance of thunderstorms in our forecast Wednesday through Friday. This is our version of “just in case.” You can see overall rain chances are relatively low. What you will also see on the 7 day forecast is WARM temperatures! Expect high in the low to mid 80s Wednesday through Saturday. Those temperatures may end up being warmer, if the storm system stays completely NW of us like we are thinking.
