Wednesday early morning update:
There’s a lot to read here, but please take the time to read it so that you have a full understanding…
I’ve attached two maps here. The first one is the new outlook update from the NWS Storm Prediction Center valid for Wednesday and Wednesday night. This isn’t our forecast. This is their official one. Off to the west, they have outlooked a rare Level 5/5 High Risk across far west Tennessee, and they have nudged the Level 4/5 risk over to places like Corinth MS to Savannah TN to Centreville TN. They have also nudged Level 3/5 and Level 2/5 risks back into more of southern middle TN and northwest AL. We are showing this so that we are being fully honest and transparent in this whole process.
The second map attached here just simplifies everything and takes both their opinion out of it AND our opinion out if it and shows you where the DATA shows storms likely, possible/close call, or not affecting an area. Data overnight has trended a little stronger with the cold pooling of the storms congealing together to our west after 10:00pm causing them nudge a little closer to our western and northwestern counties after midnight through the predawn. They won’t be as strong as off to the west near Memphis and Jackson and such, but storms are more likely now as far east as places like Selmer TN, Henderson TN, Parsons and Decaturville in TN, near Savannah in TN to near Linden and Centreville in TN. Storms in these areas, as early as 10pm but more likely after midnight until sunrise Thursday morning, would have the potential for damaging winds up to 60-65 mph, quarter size hail, and maybe a few tornadoes. We can’t 100% rule out a strong tornado, but that is MUCH more likely back closer to Memphis, Jackson, Dyersburg, etc.
East of there, it’s getting to be more of a close call now as far east as Iuka MS, Waterloo AL, Cypress Inn and Collinwood TN, Ethridge to near Lawrenceburg in TN up to Culleoka TN and over to near Chapel Hill TN. **Not all data shows storms getting as far east as here**, but one or two models do show weakening storms after midnight getting as far east as these communities. Even though they would be weakening, there would still at least be a low-end possibility of damaging winds up to 60 mph, hail up to quarter size, and maybe an isolated tornado or two.
Areas east and southeast of that across the remainder of Lawrence Co TN, Giles Co TN, Marshall Co TN, and across most of north Alabama, yes, we see what the NWS Storm Prediction Center outlook shows, but we also see that there is not one single solitary piece of model data that gets storms into these areas for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Just being honest and transparent with you. It’s very likely that the places in green on the second map won’t even see rain.
Our plan? We’re going to play it safe and keep the weather center staffed overnight tonight in case storms do try to sneak into our viewing area from the west. I can’t tell you there’s a high threat of that; I would be lying to you if I said that. However, I would also be lying to you if I told you the threat of that is zero. We’re going to play it safe so that we can keep you safe, and we’re going to be staffed and keeping an eye on radar overnight and will be ready to provide instant live updates should warnings be issued in our viewing area (which starts at Hardin County TN and Tishomingo County MS and works east through southern middle TN and across northwest AL).
What should your plan be? Especially if you live in those red and yellow areas on our second map (the one from us that only shows 3 colors), your plan should be to pay attention, be ready to act if a warning is issued overnight, have your safety plan in place, but don’t be worried or afraid of it. We’ll get through it okay. If you’re in the green area on our second map, we don’t want you to just ignore it here either, but unless something radically changes, we really do think there’s a HIGH chance the storms miss you altogether. We just have to be honest and call it like we see it, even if that disagrees with “official” sources. That’s why we presented their map and a map to show you what the raw data shows, so you could be informed of all opinions and possibilities!
