Over the last few days our highs have steadily been rising after consecutive beautiful days, and today is certainly the zenith of that, to put it one way. With highs in the lower-mid 80s today so far it certainly felt more like late spring or early summer, and it’s no surprise why – with relatively strong winds out of the south, we have had that humidity flowing into the area which has provided some insulation for the atmosphere to keep us warm… and also has provided moisture for those storms we’ve been discussing for the overnight. Let’s break those chances down and see what we’re expecting.
Though today was dry, tonight that trend changes in a big way. The current thinking is that we’ll see the first signs of showers moving in around 10pm, but there is good model agreement that the heaviest thunderstorm activity will be focused in time from about 11pm for the western portions of the area, to I-65 and east by 2-3am – certainly around the time most of us will be asleep. Showers look likely behind the main line through tomorrow morning, but those don’t look particularly impactful as they are essentially just wrap-around showers from leftover moisture – most all of the heavy rain will be in the aforementioned 2-4 hour window during the overnight.
In terms of threats, this is a fairly “bog standard” line as far as these types of fronts go. Our primary concern is the possibility of damaging winds, with gusts 50+mph, perhaps isolated up to 60 at times. As with any line we also can’t completely rule out a brief tornado in the line, but that is far from the main concern and this does not have the makings of a major tornado threat. Likewise due to it being more linear, conditions aren’t as favorable for large hail, and flooding threats are minimal as well. We could see some localized street/lower level flooding at times with particularly heavy downpours however, especially in the more drought ridden areas, but this will likely be isolated for the most part.
Silver linings do exist in the forecast however as this front clears us out quite nicely and really brings those temperatures down for the full duration of the workweek. As a matter of fact on Tuesday a somewhat weaker secondary cold front comes through and reinforces this cooldown (and perhaps brings with it a few stray showers, though moisture is less with this front), so we’ll end up seeing widespread upper 60s/lower 70s and 40s (perhaps even upper 30s) for lows in the midweek timeframe. Fall is making itself known here very soon!
