It comes as a shock to absolutely nobody that drought conditions remain across a large part of the viewing area. If anything, it’s a little bit of a surprise that much of our region isn’t ranked in slightly worse drought conditions than what are shown on the latest Drought Monitor update from the NWS Climate Prediction Center (shown at left). A moderate level drought covers almost all of our area, with “severe” to “extreme” ranked drought conditions being found closer to I-65 in southern middle Tennessee. These particular areas missed our on the heavy rains from the tropical systems in September, which was the main thing that had given a decent hit to the more significant drought conditions that had earlier developed over us beginning in the early summer.
Although we saw a few scattered showers on Saturday that gave a few communities across the area a few hundredths to a few tenths of an inch of rain, it has been exceptionally dry for the last month. Helene was the last significant rain maker for our area, and the heaviest rains from it missed us to the east and to the northwest. Communities in our viewing area that didn’t see much rain from Helene at the end of September have seen less than half an inch of rain in the last 30 days, and even some of those numbers are overestimated compared to rain gauge observations. For example, the Northwest Alabama Regional Airport in Muscle Shoals has not officially registered any rainfall for the month of October. A few showers were nearby on Saturday in some parts of the Shoals, but not at the airport itself. What was a rain surplus for there of over 6-7 inches for 2024 back in the spring has been reduced to a 2024 year-to-date rain surplus of less than 3 inches, and that counts the heavy rain from Francine and from the spring and earlier parts of the year. A 365 day rainfall deficit of two FEET continues across a large part of southern middle Tennessee, and those higher numbers are now beginning to creep into north Alabama and north Mississippi. Those long-term deficits don’t have to be completely wiped out for drought conditions to be gone, but having significant long-term rain deficits in place just makes it easier to fall back into drought conditions when we get into stretches of drier weather.
The question now becomes whether or not there is relief in sight. The answer does appear to be “yes”, although it will likely be gradual. It’s normal for September and October to be dry here (although not as dry as this October has been), but we are about to head into November, and November typically begins our “wet season” here as the jet stream migrates southward and the storm track gets more active. (That also coincides with the start of tornado and severe storm season here that runs from November through May). We actually see our next opportunity for rain coming THIS week, and while it doesn’t appear to be a lot of rain or a drought buster, it does appear to be a more widespread rain event and a slightly better soaking than what we had with the showers back on Saturday. Unfortunately, it looks to come on Halloween evening when the kids are trying to trick or treat. Still, a large part of the area looks like it may indeed see anywhere from half to three quarters of an inch of rain from late Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning, and we can’t rule out isolated spots near an inch, especially west of U.S. Highway 43. Areas closer to I-65 in north Alabama may not see as much though, since the system will be weakening with time as it moves in.
From there, we don’t see any strong signals for widespread drought busting rains the next 7-14 days, but the NWS Climate Prediction Center has us outlooked in slight chances for above average precipitation on their 6-10 day outlook for November 3rd through 7th and equal chances (near average) for their 8 to 14 day outlook for November 5th through the 11th. With November averaging much wetter conditions than September and October climatologically speaking, even “equal chances” and “near average” will mean some rainfall. It will take time to overcome the drought across the area, but with the storm track getting more active as we head deeper into fall and eventually toward winter, we will likely see more opportunities to have the rainfall necessary to do just that. Time will tell…
