Partly to mostly cloudy skies are overhead to kick off this Monday across the Tennessee Valley. Another hot and humid day is in store, but that should come as no surprise in the middle of July. In terms of afternoon thunderstorm chances, you see on our Futurecast model just how spotty we expect the coverage to be. That’s not to say your location will not see a thunderstorm, chances simply just aren’t that great. However, the chance IS there! Think of your typical summer afternoon. A few pop up thunderstorms in the area with hot and humid conditions. That’s what we have in store today. A few thunderstorms just northwest of our viewing area may be on the stronger side, but I don’t think we will be dealing with particularly strong thunderstorms here locally this afternoon. Thunderstorm chances will diminish as we lose daylight. Overnight should be primarily dry, with a partly cloudy sky and lows in the lower 70s.
Daily thunderstorm chances continue through the rest of the week. We have relatively lower rain chances through Wednesday, and then coverage will likely be a bit more scattered to widespread Thursday and beyond. We are also watching a center of low pressure in the Gulf, to see how it may impact our weather here locally, as well as along the Gulf coast. More on the gulf can be found toward the bottom of this post.
Isolated daily afternoon thunderstorm chances will be with us through Wednesday. You probably won’t see a thunderstorm every day, but between the three days, you may experience one or two! Rain chances increase beginning Thursday, as coverage is expected to be a bit more scattered to widespread. We will be watching the gulf toward the end of the week to see if we get any of the moisture from that system pushed up north into our area in the Tennessee Valley.
Turning our attention now to the Gulf. There is currently a disorganized cluster of thunderstorms off the eastern coast of Florida. This cluster is expected to move west into the Gulf over the next few days. Right off the bat, I will say this cluster has a low chance of developing into an organized tropical system. Per the National Hurricane Center, the chance of development over the next 48 hours is 10%, and over the next 7 days is 30%. That being said, whether there is an organized system or not, there will be increased storm chances along the Gulf Coast toward the middle and end of this week, with an increased flooding risk along the coast.
If you know somebody along the Gulf coast or have plans to head down there, no need to change your plans just yet. I’d be paying attention to the forecast and perhaps be considering a plan b. An alternate plan may not be necessary, however weather will not be great regardless.
