After storms back on Saturday and storms on Monday, we look to be facing more strong storms as we head into Wednesday. The NWS Storm Prediction Center maintains a Level 2 of 5 risk outlook across the entire area for Wednesday. The main timeframe for our region is from the mid afternoon through the mid-late evening, roughly from about 2-3pm until about 9-10pm from northwest to southeast. This isn’t an outbreak or higher-end type threat, but all threat types are possible. We could see a spin-up tornado or two across the area, and the tornado risk for Wednesday is just a tick higher than the previous two systems, but it is still on the lower end of things. A few storms may also produce wind gusts of 50-65 mph and quarter to half dollar size hail. Frequent lightning is also a big concern, and heavy rain could once again lead to localized street flooding, especially after all the heavy rain we had Saturday and Monday.
Here’s a general overview of the timing of the storms with our high-resolution Baron Futurecast model being used as a visual aid for this discussion. We look to be quiet with storms still off to the west through midday, but as we get to 2:00-3:00pm, scattered storms start to develop near the area, and they track into southern Tennessee, north Alabama, and northeast Mississippi through the mid to late afternoon. A few of these storms may be strong to severe with all threat types possible, as discussed earlier. As we head into the early evening, a more solid line of storms looks to develop along the cold front as it pushes in, and this sweeps across the entire area from the early evening through about 10:00pm. The main threats with the solid line of storms would be pockets of damaging wind gusts, lightning, and heavy rain, but a brief spin-up tornado would still be possible. By 10:00pm or so, the strongest storms look to be south and east of our area with the threat coming to an end as cooler air moves in behind the cold front and showers linger into the overnight.
Go ahead and make sure your severe weather safety plan is in place and that you have multiple reliable methods for hearing watches and warnings. We will be fully staffed in the weather center and ready to provide LIVE coverage updates should any warnings be issued across the viewing area!
