After a rather slow start to the Atlantic hurricane season compared to the last several years (no complaints here!), Andrea formed in the open North Atlantic on Tuesday, briefly becoming the first named tropical storm of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Since then, Andrea has moved into less favorable conditions with the convection associated with its circulation dissipating. All of this has allowed Andrea to weaken into just a remnant circulation overnight, and it will continue to dissipate in the open North Atlantic with no threat to land.
Looking ahead, we don’t see any further signs of organized tropical development in the Atlantic basin for the immediately foreseeable future. The National Hurricane Center doesn’t have any development areas outlooked in the Atlantic basin for at least the next seven days. We have had some on and off disorganized thunderstorm activity in the Gulf and down through the western Caribbean, but nothing is trying to organize, and conditions are not favorable. Farther out in the east Atlantic, we do have a couple of tropical waves in the Intertropical Convergence Zone, but none of those are showing signs of developing thanks to a continuance of dust, dry air, and wind shear. Overall, things look to stay quiet in the Atlantic basin for at least the next 7 to 10 days, if not longer.
We know it won’t stay quiet forever though. There will eventually be additional systems to develop. However, it’s not unusual for us to be this quiet in the Atlantic hurricane basin during June and even July. While tropical storms and even hurricanes develop during both months for sure, it is also not out of the ordinary to remain fairly low key in the first several weeks of the hurricane season. Climatologically speaking, things usually start to ramp up as we get later into July and especially August through October, with the official climatological peak of the season coming on September 10th. Seasonal activity forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University both suggest an average to slightly above average hurricane season should be in store. We see no big reasons to disagree with that, although we think it may lean toward the lower side of their numbers (although likely still fall within their ranges, making their forecasts verify as correct). The next name on the list is Barry, followed by Chantal and Dexter…
