The National Weather Service now has all of our viewing area counties across southern middle Tennessee, northwest Alabama, and northeast Mississippi in a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY valid from tonight through midday on Wednesday. We’re not expecting a major winter storm by any remote stretch of the imagination, but light snow accumulation is pretty likely over a large part of the area, and some slick spots and hazardous travel are possible.
Our latest expectations are that anywhere from a half inch to 2 inches of snow will fall across our southern middle Tennessee counties down to about Iuka, MS to Cherokee, Muscle Shoals, and Athens in north Alabama. South of that line across north Alabama, snow accumulation will be lighter because of more marginal temps and the snow mixing with sleet and rain. In these areas, we expect anywhere from a dusting up to maybe an inch in spots. However, there may very well be some town in this area that see little to no accumulation because of marginal temps and rain mixing in to cause melting.
Here is a rough timeline of events from the Baron high-res Futurecast model. By late this evening, we may start to see some light wintry mixed precip or light snow mixing southern Tennessee, but a lot of this will likely be evaporating before reaching the ground at first. By Midnight to 1:00am, we expect that to change as light to moderate snow and a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and rain overspreads the area. This will continue to fall steadily through about sunrise before the most widespread activity starts to wind down from west to east, and by midday to the early afternoon, all the activity is east of our area.
There may be a window during the midday and afternoon where travel, especially on main roads and treated surfaces, can improve as temperatures briefly warm into the 30s (perhaps above freezing even over north Alabama). This will be short-lived though, as temperatures drop way below freezing Wednesday night into the teens, causing anything to refreeze again. Temperatures on Thursday are not expected to climb out of the upper 20s, but if there is a little sun, there could be some melting on the roads due to solar radiation into the pavement. However, temperatures drop back into the lower teens and upper single digits Thursday night, and any remaining snow or water on the roads from Thursday will refreeze yet again Thursday night into Friday morning, causing the potential for some slick spots into the first half of Friday even… especially on secondary roads or where there is an inch or more of snow accumulation Wednesday AM. Temperatures do get into the mid 30s for a bit on Friday afternoon, allowing for a window of melting and improvement again for those areas that may still have lingering issues into Friday morning.
