The latest update to the Drought Monitor issued yesterday finally accounted for the multiple days of rain we had last week, and drought conditions are all but officially removed across the viewing area! Now, I know you’re looking outside at your yard at the mud and damp soil and saying “What drought?!?”, but it’s much more complex than that. Drought conditions are calculated not just on whether the ground at your house is dry at the surface, but on short-term and long-term rainfall deficits, water levels in area bodies of water like lakes and rivers, and the soil moisture conditions through a deep layer (the water table conditions). The lingering “abnormally dry” designation and small area of remaining drought conditions aren’t because your front yard is dry (because we know that’s not the case), but it has more to do with long-term rainfall deficits going back a year or more. We are heading in the right direction though!
The vast majority of the area has seen over six inches of rain the past 30 days, with areas falling short of that being near or over five inches. That is near or above the average 30 day rainfall for all locations in the area. This has done a number to help with area water levels (putting some rivers into flood stage for a time because it came in such a short time) and soil moisture conditions for your gardens as long as we don’t trend in a sustained drier direction. It’s the long-term 365+ day rainfall deficits that are still keeping us “abnormally dry” on the Drought Monitor. You can see those above, with most of southern middle Tennessee still in a rainfall deficit of near two FEET stretching back over the past year or more. While we can come fully out of drought conditions with that deficit still in place, having those large long-term deficits in place make it easier to fall back into drought conditions once we run into any sustained dry stretch lasting more than a few weeks.
The good news is that while, outside of a midweek shower chance, we look to be mostly dry next week… we look to overall remain in an active pattern with next week just being a brief break. The 8-14 day Precipitation Outlook from the NWS Climate Prediction Center shows increasing confidence in above average precipitation across much of the Southeast for the first week of March. With La Nina exiting this spring and it being just a first-season La Nina so that the subtropical ridging isn’t as strong as early in the year, our storm track will likely remain active for at least March and April before it makes its typical migration north and west into May and June. While that may mean opportunities for severe storms in the Tennessee Valley, that will also mean we’re not shutting down the rainfall for any extended periods anytime really soon, and we will continue to improve on those long-term rainfall deficits over the region.
