Clouds are locked in across the area on this Wednesday. Despite that, temperatures have still managed to climb into the mid to upper 50s along and north of the Tennessee River and into the lower 60s south of there. We have a few light sprinkles on radar across southern Tennessee this afternoon. This is near a frontal boundary that’s draped from Tennessee back into Arkansas and north Texas with a low pressure area back into northern Texas. This will be the catalyst for showers and a few thunderstorms over the next 18 to 24 hours.
Showers will become more likely as we head into the overnight. Temperatures will stay on the warm side too, with clouds and our breezy south wind continuing. Overnight lows will stay in the low to mid 50s. Showers and storms are most likely during the morning hours of Thursday before shifting south into the afternoon. No severe storms are expected, but some locally heavy rainfall and maybe some isolated 30 mph wind gusts are certainly possible. We may have a lingering shower into the afternoon, but it looks like the majority of the rain is south of us and we return to partially clearing skies by midday and the afternoon. Because of this, we’ve had to bump daytime highs up a little for Thursday, into the mid 60s with a bit more sunshine in the afternoon. Areas north of Highway 64 in southern Tennessee will likely stay closer to the lower 60s though. With more breaks in the cloud cover overnight, we will be a little cooler. We’re still not going to be actually cold though, with no real cold air behind this front. Overnight lows for Thursday night will range from the upper 30s to the mid 40s.
Above are computer model images from the in-house Baron computer model and the HRRR computer model, to give a basic timeline for the rain and thunder. Both models show showers overnight and then the best chance of rain and thunderstorms during the morning on Thursday before clearing in the afternoon. The Baron model is faster with the storms though, moving them through between 3am-7am, whereas the HRRR model is slower with a 6am-10am timing. The Baron model can often be a little to fast with timing, and the HRRR can often be a little too slow compared to reality. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle between the two model solutions.
That system is off to our south and moving away by Friday, and we are back to mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid to upper 60s. We’re even warmer for the weekend as we get a southwesterly wind in here again. Daytime highs look to climb into the lower 70s for most everybody across the viewing area, and a few folks in north Alabama could get into the middle 70s. We look to stay dry through the weekend before a slight chance of showers returns for the early to middle part of next week.
Looking ahead into the extended range via the 6-10 Day and 8-14 Day outlooks from the NWS Climate Prediction Center, it’s looking like we may be in a pattern that favors above average precipitation and above average temperatures as we head through the first third or so of March. While it’s too far out to hone in on any potential storm threats, and we don’t currently see anything that looks like an obvious problem, we will be heading into the primary spring part of our severe weather season as we shift into March. Above average precipitation + above average temperatures this time of year can sometimes mean severe weather troubles. While we don’t see obvious signals for that, and it’s too far out to be concerned anyway, we’ll be watching closely as we move forward!
